Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 3.504832 3.817283 4.178651 4.637050 5.218599 5.956883 7.014499
2024-12-22 3.046131 3.416089 3.874676 4.510721 5.422114 6.793807 9.361722
2024-12-29 2.863145 3.280089 3.824734 4.637420 5.938916 8.291783 14.805211
2025-01-05 2.638704 3.052412 3.606170 4.462601 5.917549 8.858010 20.234831
2025-01-12 2.458628 2.861874 3.410261 4.278974 5.817141 9.203440 27.940122
2025-01-19 2.337294 2.738402 3.293091 4.194861 5.867658 9.958155 57.745392
2025-01-26 2.290372 2.711280 3.309232 4.324118 6.367711 12.558157 NaN
2025-02-02 2.269583 2.717412 3.373118 4.543654 7.160956 18.478300 NaN
2025-02-09 2.207744 2.659232 3.331035 4.564302 7.500100 24.474623 NaN
2025-02-16 2.157585 2.614246 3.304783 4.609342 7.934316 38.268056 NaN
2025-02-23 2.071005 2.510535 3.176036 4.436262 7.666924 38.666906 NaN
2025-03-02 2.023164 2.462127 3.133931 4.431229 7.925429 68.496740 NaN
2025-03-09 1.971774 2.408072 3.082349 4.408260 8.154877 417.735020 NaN
2025-03-16 1.908504 2.333409 2.992119 4.294997 8.035431 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.888522 2.323110 3.008425 4.408887 8.823177 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.826764 2.246013 2.906207 4.251647 8.458071 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.766934 2.170129 2.803138 4.085718 8.027701 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.724783 2.120207 2.742537 4.009449 7.957739 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.715545 2.120513 2.767861 4.126583 8.780550 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.717452 2.138016 2.824081 4.324638 10.251015 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.694167 2.114733 2.806165 4.343208 10.801018 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.674952 2.097150 2.797441 4.383681 11.577603 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.631936 2.040238 2.714549 4.227895 10.833266 NaN NaN